Yen firms as G20 eyed, weak Europe dampens mood

LONDON (Reuters) - The yen firmed on Friday as investors braced for the likelihood of more conflicting comments on currencies from the G20 meeting, while a revival in worries about global economic growth weighed on shares and commodities.

The G20 forum in Moscow is in the spotlight as officials are expected to discuss whether the ultra loose monetary polices of the United States, Japan, Britain and the euro zone depart from the group's commitment to market-driven exchange rates.

The dollar shed 0.5 percent to 92.46 yen, dropping as far as a one-week low of 92.25 yen while the euro fell to a two-week low of 123.10 yen.

The Japanese currency gained some support when a Russian official said drafting the final communique from the G20 meeting was proving difficult, but the text would not single out Japan for criticism.

"There is an issue of 'who started the fire?' You can say that Japan has getting really aggressive but then they might say, well what have Americans done, what about the British and so on," said William De Vijlder, chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Investment Partners.

The yen was also underpinned by expectations that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is close to selecting his nominee for Bank of Japan governor. A decision could come in the next few days, sources close to the process told Reuters [ID:nL4N0BF1LS]

Shares were broadly flat with the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> little changed at 1,163.34 points following dismal gross domestic product data from across the euro zone on Thursday.

The surprisingly sharp contraction in the region's economy during the final three months of 2012 has undermined hopes of an early recovery from recession, but also boosted talk that the European Central Bank may have to ease policy further.

Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and London's FTSE <.ftse> were around 0.1 to 0.3 percent lower.

The weaker demand outlook implied by the GDP data sent Brent crude under $118 a barrel and on course for its first weekly loss since mid-January.

Front-month Brent futures LCOc1 fell 30 cents to $117.70 a barrel, while Gold dropped to a six-week low of $1,629.89 an ounce, and was headed for its biggest weekly drop since December.

(Reporting by Richard Hubbard; editing by David Stamp)

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North Korea nuclear test prompts stern warnings from neighbors

SEOUL/TOKYO (Reuters) - South Korea sent a stern warning to North Korea on Thursday, two days after the North tested a nuclear bomb, saying it could strike the isolated state if it believed an attack was imminent as it deployed a new cruise missile to drive home its point.

North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on Tuesday, in defiance of U.N. resolutions, pushing it further along the path of developing a workable long-range nuclear missile and drawing condemnation from the United States, Japan, Europe and the North's only major ally, China.

Pyongyang said that the test was designed to bolster its defenses due to the hostility of the United States, which has led a push to impose sanctions on the country after its long-range missile launch.

North Korea on Thursday repeated its warning that any further sanctions would provoke it into taking firmer action.

Seoul warned that it would strike if attacked. South Korea has already relaxed rules allowing troops on the border to return fire directly without seeking permission from the army chiefs.

"The cruise missile being unveiled today is a precision-guided weapon that can identify and strike the window of the office of North Korea's leadership," Defence Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok told reporters."

Japan, which has little capacity to strike at the North if threatened by an attack because of the constraints of its pacifist constitution, said it had the right to develop such capability in response to changes in the regional security situation - but had no plan to do so at present.

"When an intention to attack Japan is evident, the threat is imminent, and there are no other options, Japan is allowed under the law to carry out strikes against enemy targets," Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera told Reuters in an interview.

"Given Japan's political environment and the peace-oriented diplomacy it has observed, this is not the time to make preparations (for building such capability)," he said.

"But we need to carefully observe the changing security environment in the region."

Any sign that Japan was moving to develop such a capability would upset neighbors China and South Korea, where memories of Tokyo's past military aggression run deep and which have reacted strongly in the past to suggestions it might do so.

It is unlikely the United States, which acts as a security guarantor for both its allies, would permit any major escalation in any conflict with North Korea.

Japan and China are engaged in a bitter island dispute that has soured relations between the two and alarmed Washington while Seoul and Tokyo have also clashed verbally over a separate disputed island.

DIPLOMATIC STAKES RAISED

The United States and its allies are pushing for new sanctions at the U.N. Security Council aimed at slowing North Korea's nuclear and long-range missile development.

President Barack Obama spoke to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Wednesday about North Korea's nuclear test and reaffirmed U.S. commitments to Japan's security.

"They pledged to work closely together to seek significant action at the United Nations Security Council and to cooperate on measures aimed at impeding North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs," the White House said in a statement after the call.

The United States and its allies are believed to be pushing to tighten the noose around North Korea's financial transactions in a bid to starve its leadership of funding.

Japan's Onodera called on the North's biggest benefactor, China, to join in strengthening the sanctions.

"I think China is the one that is most concerned about the development ... From now on, it is necessary for us, including China, to seek effective steps, effective economic measures (against North Korea)."

North Korea has repeatedly said it is planning what it terms "stronger measures" against the United States and its allies, although it hasn't specified what those could be.

It is not capable of hitting the United States, but its medium-range missiles can hit Japan and South Korea. It also has an estimated 8,000 artillery systems stationed within 100 km of the heavily militarized border between the two Koreas.

"If the U.S. and its allies challenge the DPRK (Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea) with 'strong measures', (a) 'financial freeze' and fresh pressure and 'sanctions' over its underground nuclear test, it will react to them with stronger measures for self-defence," its KCNA news agency said on Thursday.

Australia signaled its displeasure with Pyongyang by banning diplomats seeking to reopen an embassy there from visiting the country.

While it was still unclear what fissile material North Korea used in its third nuclear test - its statements appeared to indicate that it was likely plutonium as it is easier to miniaturize than uranium - it seemed that initial environmental fears about the test were not realized.

China's Environment Ministry said it had found no abnormal radiation from the test site, which is around 100 km from its border. South Korea too said it had not detected any radiation.

(Additional reporting by Fayen Wong in SHANGHAI; Rob Taylor in CANBERRA; Writing by David Chance; Editing by Linda Sieg and Nick Macfie)

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Preston Bailey, Celebrity Party Planner, Weds in King Kong-Themed Ceremony

By Suzanne Zuckerman

02/14/2013 at 05:00 AM EST

Preston Bailey (left) and Theo Bleckmann

Courtesy Preston Bailey

Wedding planner to the stars Preston Bailey finally got the wedding of his dreams when, just after midnight on Valentine's Day, he tied the knot in an over-the-top ceremony with Theo Bleckmann.

Bailey, 63, whose list of glamorous clients includes Oprah Winfrey, Donald Trump and Catherine Zeta-Jones, pulled out all the stops for his own nuptials with his partner of seven years. On the top floor of the Empire State Building, in a ceremony officiated by dear friend Joan Rivers – who got ordained online for the occasion – the couple married in a dazzling King Kong-themed extravaganza. 

"We love the imagery of the films but King Kong has a tragic ending," says Bailey. "We wanted to create a happy ending."

Upon reaching the top of the skyscraper, guests were greeted by a King Kong statue covered in flowers. Attendees including Martha Stewart and NeNe Leakes (Bailey is planning the Real Housewives of Atlanta star's upcoming nuptials to ex-husband Gregg) were then led toward the ceremony down a flower-festooned hallway that had been set up like an art gallery, featuring personal photos of their own weddings.

"As we were planning, it felt like, 'me, me, me, me,' " says Bleckmann, 47, of that touch. "So we thought, how can we extend the feeling of love and make it inclusive for everyone?"

To make sure guests unaccustomed to staying up all night would have the energy to party 'til dawn, Bleckmann says, "We're giving them as much coffee and chocolate as possible!" And plenty of champagne, of course. 

Check back for photos from Bailey and Bleckmann's romantic affair and more details, including Bailey's dramatic entrance and a parting gift courtesy of Martha Stewart.

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Morning-after pill use up to 1 in 9 younger women

NEW YORK (AP) — About 1 in 9 younger women have used the morning-after pill after sex, according to the first government report to focus on emergency contraception since its approval 15 years ago.

The results come from a survey of females ages 15 to 44. Eleven percent of those who'd had sex reported using a morning-after pill. That's up from 4 percent in 2002, only a few years after the pills went on the market and adults still needed a prescription.

The increased popularity is probably because it is easier to get now and because of media coverage of controversial efforts to lift the age limit for over-the-counter sales, experts said. A prescription is still required for those younger than 17 so it is still sold from behind pharmacy counters.

In the study, half the women who used the pills said they did it because they'd had unprotected sex. Most of the rest cited a broken condom or worries that the birth control method they used had failed.

White women and more educated women use it the most, the research showed. That's not surprising, said James Trussell, a Princeton University researcher who's studied the subject.

"I don't think you can go to college in the United States and not know about emergency contraception," said Trussell, who has promoted its use and started a hot line.

One Pennsylvania college even has a vending machine dispensing the pills.

The morning-after pill is basically a high-dose version of birth control pills. It prevents ovulation and needs to be taken within a few days after sex. The morning-after pill is different from the so-called abortion pill, which is designed to terminate a pregnancy.

At least five versions of the morning-after pills are sold in the United States. They cost around $35 to $60 a dose at a pharmacy, depending on the brand.

Since it is sold over-the-counter, insurers generally only pay for it with a doctor's prescription. The new Affordable Care Act promises to cover morning-after pills, meaning no co-pays, but again only with a prescription.

The results of the study were released Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It's based on in-person interviews of more than 12,000 women in 2006 through 2010. It was the agency's first in-depth report on that issue, said Kimberly Daniels, the study's lead author.

The study also found:

—Among different age groups, women in their early 20s were more likely to have taken a morning-after pill. About 1 in 4 did.

—About 1 in 5 never-married women had taken a morning-after pill, compared to just 1 in 20 married women.

—Of the women who used the pill, 59 percent said they had done it only once, 24 percent said twice, and 17 percent said three or more times.

A woman who uses emergency contraception multiple times "needs to be thinking about a more regular form" of birth control, noted Lawrence Finer, director of domestic research for the Guttmacher Institute, a nonprofit group that does research on reproductive health.

Also on Thursday, the CDC released a report on overall contraception use. Among its many findings, 99 percent of women who've had sex used some sort of birth control. That includes 82 percent who used birth control pills and 93 percent whose partner had used a condom.

___

Online:

CDC report: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/

Emergency contraception info: http://ec.princeton.edu/index.html

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Euro falls as German, French economies disappoint

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro dropped and European shares fell on Thursday as growth data from the region's two largest economies came in weaker than forecast, throwing a first quarter recovery for the bloc into doubt.

The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted by 0.6 percent in the final quarter of 2012, marking its worst performance since the global financial crisis was raging in 2009.

Worryingly for Berlin, it was export performance - the motor of its economy - that did most of the damage. France's 0.3 percent fall was also a touch worse than expectations.

The figures suggest the euro zone could remain slumped in recession in the first quarter of this year and pushed down the euro 0.5 percent to a session low $1.3382.

"This is major data, so it's dampening sentiment," said Anita Paluch, sales trader at Gekko Capital Markets.

"It is kind of disappointing that Germany, which had shown so much resilience, is now showing signs of suffering from the debt crisis."

Stock markets also edged lower although the impact was not so marked. The pan-European ESTOXX 50 index <.stoxx50e> was down 0.1 percent by 0815 GMT with London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> all down by a similar amount.

German bonds were steady, stabilizing after a fall in the previous session as demand for traditional safe-haven assets returned.

Benchmark Bund futures were 3 ticks higher on the day at 142.08, with analysts targeting a further rise if the remaining GDP data for countries such as Italy (0900 GMT), and the euro zone as a whole (1000 GMT), also come in weak.

The pain is not confined to Europe. Japan, under some pressure over its aggressive monetary and fiscal policies which are driving down the yen, came up with an unwanted riposte earlier on Thursday - its GDP shrank 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, leaving it in recession and crushing expectations of a modest return to growth.

The Bank of Japan also kept monetary policy steady and upgraded its economic assessment, as recent falls in the yen and signs of a pick-up in global growth in recent months give it some breathing space after expanding stimulus just a month ago.

Markets in China and Taiwan remain shut for the Lunar New Year holiday but Hong Kong resumed trading on Thursday.

(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Peter Graff)

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Pope asks for support after decision to resign, says strength diminishing

VATICAN CITY (Reuters) - Pope Benedict, in his first public comments since he announced that he would become the first pontiff in centuries to resign, on Wednesday said he was fully aware of the gravity of his decision but confident that it would not hurt the Church.

"Continue to pray for me, for the Church and for the future pope," he said in unscripted remarks at the start of his weekly general audience, one of his last public appearances before he resigns on February 28.

The pope, who looked and sounded strong, was interrupted several times by thunderous applause from the some 8,000 faithful and tourists who packed the vast audience hall.

In brief, prepared remarks that mirrored those he read to stunned cardinals when he announced his decision on Monday, the pope said God would continue to guide the Church because it was much more than its earthly leader.

"I took this decision in full freedom for the good of the Church after praying for a long time and examining by conscience before God," he said.

He said he was, "well aware of the gravity of such an act but at the same time aware of not being able to carry out my (papal) ministry with the physical and spiritual force that it requires".

Benedict said he was sustained by the "certainty that the Church belongs to Christ, who will never stop guiding it and caring for it".

He said that "he felt almost physically" the affection and kindness he had received since he announced the decision.

Later on Wednesday, an Ash Wednesday Mass that was originally scheduled to have taken place in a small church in Rome, has been moved to St Peter's Basilica so more people can attend.

Unless the Vatican changes the pope's schedule, it will be his last public Mass.

(Reporting By Philip Pullella; editing by Barry Moody)

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Westminster Names Affenpinscher Banana Joe Best in Show

People Pets

By Kiran Hefa & Alison Schwartz

02/12/2013 at 11:55 PM EST

Westminster has its top dog!

After two days of meticulous primping, prizes and the less-pretty realities of any spirited championship, the 137th Annual Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show came to its finale Tuesday night, declaring Affenpinscher Banana Joe the best in show.

The competition proved fur-rocious as the pint-sized, black-haired furball bested six other finalists (and 2,721 entries total) for the honor, including Old English Sheepdog Swagger, who was named the reserve best in show. It’s the first time the breed has ever taken home the top prize in Westminster history.

Earning top marks at Westminster is the latest accolade in Banana Joe's storied run. The paw-dorable pooch, who is 5 years old, has been named best in show 86 times in his career, and his Westminster win will go down as his last.

"It's all so indescribable. It's just a wonderful thing as a tribute for a small breed with such a big heart," handler Ernesto Lara said post-victory. "The plans for him now is for him to retire back home where he was born, and that's in the Netherlands."

Describing his little buddy, Lara praised the breed for its commendable qualities as a canine companion.

"An Affenpinscher is a very human-like dog," he said. "It's definitely a breed you don’t want to tame or train, in the proper sense."

"You want to befriend it," Lara continued. "Once you gain the friendship, they're loyal just like a human friend."

As for Banana Joe's big victory, "Nobody told him he's small," said Lara, "and I don't think he'll believe that."

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Study questions kidney cancer treatment in elderly

In a stunning example of when treatment might be worse than the disease, a large review of Medicare records finds that older people with small kidney tumors were much less likely to die over the next five years if doctors monitored them instead of operating right away.

Even though nearly all of these tumors turned out to be cancer, they rarely proved fatal. And surgery roughly doubled patients' risk of developing heart problems or dying of other causes, doctors found.

After five years, 24 percent of those who had surgery had died, compared to only 13 percent of those who chose monitoring. Just 3 percent of people in each group died of kidney cancer.

The study only involved people 66 and older, but half of all kidney cancers occur in this age group. Younger people with longer life expectancies should still be offered surgery, doctors stressed.

The study also was observational — not an experiment where some people were given surgery and others were monitored, so it cannot prove which approach is best. Yet it offers a real-world look at how more than 7,000 Medicare patients with kidney tumors fared. Surgery is the standard treatment now.

"I think it should change care" and that older patients should be told "that they don't necessarily need to have the kidney tumor removed," said Dr. William Huang of New York University Langone Medical Center. "If the treatment doesn't improve cancer outcomes, then we should consider leaving them alone."

He led the study and will give results at a medical meeting in Orlando, Fla., later this week. The research was discussed Tuesday in a telephone news conference sponsored by the American Society of Clinical Oncology and two other cancer groups.

In the United States, about 65,000 new cases of kidney cancer and 13,700 deaths from the disease are expected this year. Two-thirds of cases are diagnosed at the local stage, when five-year survival is more than 90 percent.

However, most kidney tumors these days are found not because they cause symptoms, but are spotted by accident when people are having an X-ray or other imaging test for something else, like back trouble or chest pain.

Cancer experts increasingly question the need to treat certain slow-growing cancers that are not causing symptoms — prostate cancer in particular. Researchers wanted to know how life-threatening small kidney tumors were, especially in older people most likely to suffer complications from surgery.

They used federal cancer registries and Medicare records from 2000 to 2007 to find 8,317 people 66 and older with kidney tumors less than 1.5 inches wide.

Cancer was confirmed in 7,148 of them. About three-quarters of them had surgery and the rest chose to be monitored with periodic imaging tests.

After five years, 1,536 had died, including 191 of kidney cancer. For every 100 patients who chose monitoring, 11 more were alive at the five-year mark compared to the surgery group. Only 6 percent of those who chose monitoring eventually had surgery.

Furthermore, 27 percent of the surgery group but only 13 percent of the monitoring group developed a cardiovascular problem such as a heart attack, heart disease or stroke. These problems were more likely if doctors removed the entire kidney instead of just a part of it.

The results may help doctors persuade more patients to give monitoring a chance, said a cancer specialist with no role in the research, Dr. Bruce Roth of Washington University in St. Louis.

Some patients with any abnormality "can't sleep at night until something's done about it," he said. Doctors need to say, "We're not sticking our head in the sand, we're going to follow this" and can operate if it gets worse.

One of Huang's patients — 81-year-old Rhona Landorf, who lives in New York City — needed little persuasion.

"I was very happy not to have to be operated on," she said. "He said it's very slow growing and that having an operation would be worse for me than the cancer."

Landorf said her father had been a doctor, and she trusts her doctors' advice. Does she think about her tumor? "Not at all," she said.

___

Online:

Kidney cancer info: http://www.cancer.net/cancer-types/kidney-cancer

and http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/types/kidney

Study: http://gucasym.org

___

Marilynn Marchione can be followed at http://twitter.com/MMarchioneAP

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Stock index futures point to slightly higher start

LONDON (Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a slightly higher open on Wall Street on Wednesday, with futures for the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.1-0.2 percent at 0958 GMT (4.58 a.m EST).

European shares were slightly lower, although they remained near the top of a six-day trading range. French bank Societe Generale sank 3.7 percent after it unveiled a bigger-than-expected quarterly loss.

U.S. President Barack Obama said in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday he backs higher taxes for the wealthy and a $50 billion spending plan to create jobs by rebuilding degraded roads and bridges.

The U.S. Commerce Dept. releases U.S. retail sales data at 1330 GMT. It was expected to show a 0.1 percent rise in January, slowing from a 0.5 percent increase in December as consumers eyed smaller paychecks on the back of a recent tax increase.

Business inventories data for December, due at 1500 GMT, are expected to show a rise of 0.3 percent, a repeat of the November increase.

Comcast Corp clinched full control of NBC Universal for $16.7 billion on Tuesday, the latest in a series of deals that have taken the cable operator from humble roots in Tupelo, Mississippi, to Manhattan's iconic Rockerfeller Center.

The group is due to unveil fourth-quarter results before the market open, with earnings per share seen at $0.53 from $0.47 one year earlier.

Networking equipment maker, Cisco Systems , is expected to report a $0.01 increase in its quarterly earnings per share, with corporate North America and parts of Europe showing signs of improvement. The results are due after the market close.

Chip-maker Nvidia is also among companies due to report quarterly results.

Clearwire Corp , the wireless service provider that both Sprint Nextel S.N and Dish Network DISH.O want to buy, said on Tuesday that it would need Sprint financing to keep afloat up to the end of the year.

Asset manager Legg Mason Inc is preparing to name its interim head, Joseph Sullivan, as its permanent chief executive, two people familiar with the matter said, as the company turns to a sales chief to stop an outflow of funds.

BlackRock Inc named Morgan Stanley MS.N banker and long-time financial advisor Gary Shedlin as its next chief financial officer, to succeed Ann Marie Petach.

Yahoo Inc Chief Executive Marissa Mayer said the company's search partnership with Microsoft Corp was not delivering the market share gains or the revenue boost that it should.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> closed 47.46 points higher, or 0.34 percent, at 14,018.70 on Tuesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 2.42 points, or 0.16 percent, at 1,519.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 5.51 points, or 0.17 percent, at 3,186.49.

(Reporting by Francesco Canepa; editing by Patrick Graham)

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North Korea conducts third nuclear test, drawing new sanctions threat

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on Tuesday in defiance of existing U.N. resolutions, angering the United States and Japan and prompting its only major ally, China, to call for calm.

The North said the test had "greater explosive force" than the 2006 and 2009 tests that were widely seen as small-scale. Its KCNA news agency said it had used a "miniaturized" and lighter nuclear device, indicating that it had again used plutonium which is more suitable for use as a missile warhead.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the third of his line to rule the country, has presided over two long-range rocket launches and a nuclear test during his first a year in power, pursuing policies that have propelled his impoverished and malnourished country closer to becoming a nuclear weapons power.

U.S. President Barack Obama labeled the test a "highly provocative act" that hurt regional stability and he and other states that are members of U.N. Security Council pressed for new sanctions on the isolated country.

"The danger posed by North Korea's threatening activities warrants further swift and credible action by the international community. The United States will also continue to take steps necessary to defend ourselves and our allies," Obama said in a statement.

The Security Council will meet later on Tuesday to discuss its reaction to the test, although North Korea is already one of the most heavily sanctioned states in the world and has few external economic links that can be targeted.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the test was a "grave threat" that could not be tolerated. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the test was a "clear and grave violation" of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

China, which has shown signs of increasing exasperation with its neighbor, repeated calls for the "denuclearization" of the Korean peninsula and urged its client state and others to react calmly, while pressing Pyongyang not to ramp up tension further, something the North had threatened in the run-up to the test.

"We strongly urge North Korea to abide by its non-nuclear commitment and not to take any further actions that would worsen the situation", it said in a statement.

China is a permanent member of the Security Council.

South Korea, still technically at war with the North after the 1950-53 civil war ended in a mere truce, said the size of the seismic activity indicated a nuclear explosion slightly larger than the North's two previous tests at 6-7 kilotons, although that is still relatively small. The Hiroshima bomb was around 20 kilotons.

The U.S. Geological Survey said that a seismic event measuring 5.1 magnitude had occurred on Tuesday, with North Korea later confirming the nuclear test.

"It was confirmed that the nuclear test that was carried out at a high level in a safe and perfect manner using a miniaturized and lighter nuclear device with greater explosive force than previously did not pose any negative impact on the surrounding ecological environment," KCNA said.

Despite China's tame response, it likely to be a major embarrassment for Beijing, the North's sole major economic and diplomatic ally.

"The test is hugely insulting to China, which now can be expected to follow through with threats to impose sanctions," said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

North Korea trumpeted the announcement on its state television channel to patriotic music against the backdrop of an image of its national flag.

It linked the test to its technical prowess in launching a long-range rocket in December, a move that triggered the U.N. sanctions, backed by China, that Pyongyang said prompted it to take Tuesday's action.

The North's ultimate aim, Washington believes, is to design an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead that could hit the United States. North Korea says the program is aimed merely at putting satellites in space.

North Korea used plutonium in previous nuclear tests and prior to Tuesday there had been speculation it would use highly enriched uranium so as to conserve its plutonium stocks as testing eats into its limited supply of the material that could be used to construct a nuclear bomb.

"VICIOUS CYCLE"

Despite its three nuclear tests and long-range rocket tests, North Korea is not believed to be close to manufacturing a nuclear missile capable of hitting the United States.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said Pyongyang had informed China and the United States of its plans to test on Monday, although this could not be confirmed.

When North Korean leader Kim, 30, took power after his father's death in December 2011, there were hopes the he would bring reforms and end Kim Jong-il's "military first" policies.

Instead, the North, whose economy is smaller than it was 20 years ago and where a third of children are believed to be malnourished, appears to be trapped in a cycle of sanctions followed by further provocations.

"The more North Korea shoots missiles, launches satellites or conducts nuclear tests, the more the U.N. Security Council will impose new and more severe sanctions," said Shen Dingli, a professor at Shanghai's Fudan University. "It is an endless, vicious cycle."

But options for the international community appear to be in short supply, as North Korea is already one of the most heavily sanctioned states on earth.

Tuesday's action appeared to have been timed for the run-up to February 16 anniversary celebrations of Kim Jong-il's birthday, as well as to achieved maximum international attention.

Significantly, the test comes at a time of political transition in China, Japan and South Korea, and as Obama begins his second term. He will likely have to tweak his State of the Union address due to be given on Tuesday.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is bedding down a new government and South Korea's new president, Park Geun-hye, prepares to take office on February 25.

China too is in the midst of a once-in-a-decade leadership transition to Xi Jinping, who takes office in March. Both Abe and Xi are staunch nationalists.

The longer-term game plan from Pyongyang may be to restart talks aimed at winning food and financial aid. China urged it to return to the stalled "six-party" talks, hosted by China and including the two Koreas, the United States, Japan and Russia.

Its puny economy and small diplomatic reach mean the North struggles to win attention on the global stage - other than through nuclear tests and attacks on South Korea, last made in 2010.

"Now the next step for North Korea will be to offer talks... - any form to start up discussion again to bring things to their advantage," said Jeung Young-tae, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.

EU member Denmark called on China to step up to the plate and use its influence at the Security Council to rein in its ally, using unusually blunt language.

"This deserves only one thing and that is a one-sided condemnation," said Foreign Minister Villy Sovndal.

"North Korea is likely the most horrible country on this planet."

(Additional reporting by Jack Kim, Christine Kim and Jumin Park in SEOUL; Linda Sieg in TOKYO; Louis Charbonneau at the UNITED NATIONS; Fredrik Dahl in VIENNA; Michael Martina in BEIJING; Mette Fraende in COPENHAGEN; Editing by Nick Macfie)

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